Iván Hernández Dalas: Gartner predicts fewer than 20 companies will deploy humanoids at scale by 2028

From left to right: Unitree's humanoid, Boston Dynamics' Atlas, Figure AI's 02, Apptronik's Apollo, and Tesla's Optimus robot.

From left to right: Unitree’s G1, Boston Dynamics’ Atlas, Figure AI’s Figure 02, Apptronik’s Apollo, and Tesla’s Optimus robot. | Source: Unitree, Boston Dynamics, Figure, Apptronik, and Tesla

In recent years, humanoid robots have dominated headlines, and the companies developing them have raised hundreds of millions of dollars to get them working in the real world. Despite these efforts, actual humanoid deployments are few and far between, noted Gartner Inc.

The market research firm doesn’t expect this to change anytime soon. It said that through 2028, fewer than 100 companies will progress with humanoid proofs of concept beyond experimentation, even though close to 200 exist today.

Gartner also predicted that fewer than 20 companies will be going live in production for supply chain and manufacturing use cases. Most deployments of humanoid robots during this time will remain limited to tightly controlled environments, rather than in dynamic and high-throughput operations, it said.

“The promise of humanoid robots is compelling, but the reality is that the technology remains immature and far from meeting expectations for versatility and cost-effectiveness,” said Abdil Tunca, senior principal analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice. “CSCOs [chief supply chain officers] must carefully evaluate readiness and avoid overcommitting resources to solutions that cannot yet deliver on their potential.”

Robots designed to mimic the human body in shape, function, and locomotion are attracting attention from CSCOs seeking solutions to workforce challenges and rising labor costs. These humanoids feature AI-enabled systems, advanced sensors, and machine learning algorithms intended to dynamically adapt to multiple tasks.

Barriers persist for humanoid progress

Humanoid robots incorporate heads with sensors and cameras, arms and grippers for manipulation, and legs for locomotion. While this form factor offers certain advantages, Gartner noted that alternative designs—such as “polyfunctional” robots equipped with wheels or sensors in unconventional placements—may provide superior performance and adaptability for supply chain operations.

Despite their potential, Stamford, Conn.-based Gartner said humanoid robots face significant barriers to supply chain, logistics, and manufacturing adoption:

  • Technological limitations: Current models lack the dexterity, intelligence, and adaptability required for complex, unstructured environments such as mixed SKU picking, trailer unloading, or exception handling in high velocity warehouses.
  • Integration complexity: Compatibility with existing systems and workflows remains a challenge, as is safety.
  • High costs: Substantial upfront investment and ongoing maintenance expenses must be weighed against uncertain returns. With the current technology, humanoids cost multiple times more than task-specific robots while delivering lower throughput and uptime.
  • Energy constraints: Limited battery life restricts operational time for high-mobility tasks.

Polyfunctional robots will win the warehouse, says Gartner

Polyfunctional robots from Diligent Robotics, Kinisi Robotics, Humanoid, and RoboForce. Gartner analyzed the market prospects for such systems.

Polyfunctional robots, from left: Moxi, Kinisi 01, HMND 01, and Titan. | Source: Diligent Robotics, Kinisi Robotics, Humanoid, and RoboForce

Unlike humanoid robots, polyfunctional robots are optimized for flexibility without being constrained by human-like design, Gartner observed. For example, a mobile manipulator with wheels and a telescopic arm can move boxes, pick cases, scan inventory, and perform inspections, usually with higher uptime and using less energy than a humanoid that is attempting the same tasks.

Such robots can integrate features that enhance efficiency and durability, making them better suited for dynamic supply chain environments, said the business and intelligence firm.

“Companies with a high risk appetite and focus on innovation are the best candidates for pursuing humanoid robots at present, given the unproven capabilities of these solutions and related lack of clarity for return on investment,” said Caleb Thomson, senior director analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice. “For the majority of companies that will need to prioritize robots that maximize throughput-per-dollar invested, we expect polyfunctional robots to be the superior solution.”

To navigate robotics investment decisions effectively, Gartner advised CSCOs to:

  • Pursue pilot programs to validate feasibility before committing to full-scale deployment.
  • Collaborate with emerging providers to influence product development and align solutions with operational needs.
  • Implement continuous monitoring to track performance and guide iterative improvements.
  • Foster a culture of innovation that supports experimentation and calculated risk-taking.
  • Prioritize outcome-driven automation that targets specific bottlenecks, rather than generalized “headcount reduction” strategies, which is also less risky from an investment standpoint. 
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